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Los problemas presupuestarios de Puerto Rico empeoran, dice Moody’s

Mon, Mar 18, 2013

Economía

moodys investors service 1

Por Luisa García Pelatti

El déficit presupuestario del Gobierno se ha duplicado desde que, en diciembre del año pasado, Moody’s Investors Service (Moody’s) degradó la calificación de la deuda sólo un nivel por encima de lo que se considera “grado de no inversión” (bono basura) y le dio una perspectiva es negativa. A Juicio de Moody’s el desequilibrio estructural creciente pone de manifiesto que las dificultades fiscales de Puerto Rico no se han terminado.

“Desde entonces, el débil desempeño del Fondo General, en conjunto con una mayor previsión de gastos, ha abierto una brecha presupuestaria e incrementado el desequilibrio estructural desde $1,100 millones  a casi $2,200 millones, o 22% del presupuesto revisado”, dijo Moody’s en un documento que sólo está disponible por suscripción.

Moody’s señala que “la nueva administración ha actuado con rapidez para aumentar los recaudos a partir del próximo año fiscal, aprobando el aumento y la ampliación del impuesto temporal a las compañías foráneas (Ley 154), y ahora está trabajando en otras propuestas para estabilizar las finanzas”.

La agencia degradó en diciembre la calificación de las obligaciones de Puerto Rico a “Baa3”, con una perspectiva negativa, apuntando a un débil sistema de retiro y a la falta de perspectivas de una mejoría de las finanzas gubernamentales y a una economía que lleva varios años en recesión y sin claras perspectivas de crecimiento. 

Otra agencia, Standard & Poor’s, bajó la semana pasada la calificación de Puerto Rico justo por encima de la categoría especulativa (“chatarra”).

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20 Responses to “Los problemas presupuestarios de Puerto Rico empeoran, dice Moody’s”

  1. dispersaos en paz sobre este issue hasta recibir los informes auditados.
    Se sabe por que el GDB dejo de publicar los infomres de deuda publica exigidos por la legislatura y el gobernador?Report

  2. Fernando Diaz says:

    I have always excluded what you state is limited liability non-exposure debt from public debt because none of what is included there has a recourse against the Government of PUerto Rico, so it should not be counted towards total public debt.

    For example, debt issued by INter American University, Polytechnic University, Sagrado Corazon, etc. through AFICA, shoult not be added because if they default, it is NOT the responsibility of PUerto Rico to pay for them….same with teh debt issued through Ports by American Airlines ($180 MM)…actually, they are not paying that debt, and PUerto Rico POrts is not responsible for it…same for Children’s Trust debt…it is repaid from receipts from the tocacco settlements and when you read the offering documents it is clear there is no recourse to Puerto Rico.

    So, when I refer to public debt, I use a number net of this $2.2 billion. I do, however, agree that these numbers do not include any debt issued after June 30. We all know there was no new bond issues, because the last one on record was the PBA bond issue in June, but here must have been disbursements of loans made by GDB to municipalities and others previously approved that are disbursed on a monthly basis….as you said in one of your previous posts, let’s wait for the next Commonwealth Report. (By the way, just as a way of clarification, the document you reference as the operating report, is actually updated 2 or 3 times a year becuase underwriters require that document to be updated periodically as it is part of the offering documents of bond issues.Report

  3. Mr. Diaz
    Greetings,
    on June 2012 the GDB published an operating report, unaudited but in apparent response to many queries from investors and rating agencies.
    It is found on the GDB website under the icon additional reports.
    It states the public debt as of june 2012 at a level opf
    $ $69.275 billion.

    $ 15,224 Sales Tax- COFINA
    $ 48,192 Public Corporations and other
    $ 3,652 Municipalities
    $ 2.262 Limited Liability Non- exposure..

    $ 69,272 total
    If no debt was issued or advances made from july 1 to December 31 that is the debt today.
    We do believe more debt and advances were made…In Ponce we believe that what you owe you must pay guaranteeed or not.
    The day Puerto Rico does bnot honor debt other than guarranted debt the game is over…Not that we are far from it because of the Public corporations deficits that I estimate in excess of $ 2 billion and the additional $2 billion in Retirement fund shortfall between current cash payments owed and cash received.
    Mr.Diaz my quarrel with the past administration on this issue was that after promising transparency they used every trick to use shades of grey in data.
    I report that the new ones are doing the same thing from what little data they have made available to the public.
    Good to exchange ideas in an amiable fashion!Report

  4. Fernando Diaz says:

    Mr. Madera: If you are referring to Note 5 of the GDB Audited Financial Statements, I beg to differ on your interpretation. Those $5.7 billion ARE already included in total public debt. The purpose of the note is to explain futher what are the sources of repayment of those lines of credit to public corporations, agencies and departments. I know you will not believe what I am writing because you have your mind set on insisting that those $5.7 billion are excluded…but they are not….they are accounted for in the $67.7 billion of total public debt (The $67.7 billion exlclude $2.2 billion of debt that does not encumber public funds and that have no recourse against the Government or any governmental instrumentality)Report

  5. El paquete de medidas para atender la situación de retiro, junto a los proyectos de recaudos – P. de la C. 917 – serán aprobados este Viernes en la Camara de Representantes.Report

  6. Lourdes Garcia says:

    Que tienen en comun Fitch, Standard & Poor y Moodys? Estos tres chiflados son complices juntos con los otros glotones y esmayaos de Wall Street que por poco derrumban el sistema financiero mundial.Report

  7. Mr. Diaz I belive the islands public debt stands at over $73 billion which is the $69.3 billion in GDB’s official statements in june 2012 where they foonote an additional $5.7 billion of excluded debt.
    You believe the public debt is at $68 billion.
    Once the CARF is published and the GDB publishes the Public Debt report or any new offering memorandum we will both be enlightened!
    Be well..Faith is better than despair!Report

  8. Today it was Fitch that delivered their whammy downgrade of bad news…
    No news of the New York credti meeting with investors.
    As a matter of fact the new economic team has not made public any rresentation about issue analysis and their corrective plan of measures to be taken.
    This idea that no news if good news and we were anticipazting more bad news strikes us as errie.
    If no specific revenue incresasing mesures are announced promptly and the Retirement Fund plan tom increase funding is annunced we will receive the checkmate bad news in less than a months time from all three rating agencies.
    No safe port navegation seen ahead.
    AGP team appear to be timid and non daring…the Legislative body appear to be shooting salvoes at everything that moves.
    We see strong wind asnd hailstorms ahead!Report

  9. Fernando Diaz says:

    Mr. Madera: You say “STILL THE EXCLUDED LOANS AND ADVANCES TO AGENCIES AND PUBLIC CORPORATIONS WILL BECOME INCREMENTAL PUBLIC DEBT IF BOND ISSUES ARE DOABLE…”…and that is exactly where I believe we are not in agreement. Thos loans and advances to agencies and public corporations are the ones that actually are already included in the total public debt. So if you repay them to GDB with bond issues, public debt does not increase as they have already been accounted for.

    The clearest example is the Highways loans made by GDB to the Highways Authority. Those loans are already included in total public debt and when they are taken out by a bond issue, the total public debt number will not increase, unless they issue more than what they owe GDB for “infrastructure investments”.Report

  10. AN OCCASIONAL TWO GLASSES OF RED WINE AND CHAMPAGNE ON SPECIAL EVENTS IS GOOD FOR THE SPIRIT AND HELPS IGNORING IDIOTIC INNUENDOS FROM “TITANES ENANOS”…WE DO NOT DRINK HEAVY LICQUOR.Report

  11. STILL THE EXCLUDED LOANS AND ADVANCES TO AGENCIES AND PUBLIC CORPORATIONS WILL BECOME INCREMENTAL PUBLIC DEBT IF BOND ISSUES ARE DOABLE…IF NOT GDB IS IN TROUBLE LEST YOU THINK THERE MIGHT BE FUNDS APPROPRIATED BY THE LEGISLATURE!
    WE DO AGREE THAT AS THE BIG EIGHT BECAME THE BIG FIVE AND THE SMAKLLER THREE THEY HAVE BEEN LOOKING FOR EXCULPATORY LANGUAGE IN ALL THIR OPINIONS….IT SEEMS EVERYOPNE IS DOING THE SAME THING!
    WELL WE MUST WAIT A FEW MORE WEEKS AND THE ISLANDS FINANCIAL STRAIGHTS WILL BE CLEARLY DEFINED.
    BELIEVE US WE HAVE BATTLED THE CALDERON AND ACEVEDO VILA ADMINISTRATIONS HEAVILY AND UNDER DURESS AS ADVISOR TO THE PRESIDENT OF THE HOUSE FROM 2005-2008 AND SENATE PRESIDENT FROM 2009-2010. WE RESIGNED THE LAST BECAUEE OF THE DISSAPOINTMENT IN MISTAKEN POLICIES AND GARDEN VARIETY DO NOTHING MEASURES IN A CRONY SYSTEM PURSUING OTHER PEOPLES MONIES AND IGNORING THE STATEHOOD BASE.
    WELL SUCH IS LIFE. TALK SOON.Report

  12. Fernando Diaz says:

    BTW, regarding Deloitte’s “warning”…in invite you to access GDB’s website and take a look at financial statements for GDB for the past 10 years….ahh! surprise…pretty much the same language used this year…..Deloitte has been including such language about possible effects on GDB’s liquidity if Government, agencies or public corporations don’t pay their loans for years!!!! Across different administrations….why? Because public accounting firms are covering their asses given all the scandalous events they have gone through over the past decade.

    Just read a little bit beyond the Fortuno administration.Report

  13. PuertoRicoPuede says:

    Easy on the whiskey my friend……it’s not good for you…Report

  14. We salute Puerto Rico Puede analysis of the Puerto Rico Economy misfortunes due to an anticipated electoral event without a single other socioeconomicm metric being evaluated.
    Boy o boy these tempered futurists are destined for great heights!Report

  15. We respond to Mr. Fernandito blog regarding our arithmetic 1 analysis of public debt of last week.
    Trip to New Orleans was very nice on Crescent Moon rail line.
    Visit to 13 Oak Tree Mansion a must.
    We do not know if Mr /f. Diaz and J. Perez are the same person but their vitriol adjetives used and sentence construction are very similar.
    From Mr. Diaz last retort we surmise he only objects to my alleged firstgrade math and GDB director bad vetting in which he states $1 dollar owed GDB by agencies when paid by public bond issues does not increase public debt as it was already included in the total.
    First things first: thank the Lord for our first grade math in T accounting of debits and credits. Delloite has percisely warned as independent auditor their concern over the GDB liquitity and solvency forthedebt owed it by agencies and public corporations cannot be paid from appropriations or public bond issues. That is what percisely footnote 5 states. If it is the same amount why prepare the footnote at all!?
    Then issue is that the funds advanced by the GDB to the central government if not repaid through internaol cassh flow or more debt the Bank is in deep problems.
    That is what Moody has stated even more recently in its concern about the governments worsenuing finances butit isprhaps the new group of leaders interpretation of GAPP snd Gasbrukles and regs why they believe that financing debt with new debt reduces deficits and debt remains the same.
    He remains silent on the other points stated by us so we leave that at that!
    Regarding our GDB membership for seven years we remind that it was an independent appointment made by the Governor as oppossed to other 30 board membership exofficio as Head of Fomento. As mentioned to the other new leader for seven of eight years that Board mantained increases of public debt under increases of the nominal economy GDP even when we contended with two back to back recessions and the highest prime rate and inflation rates since the 1930s.
    For the past twelve years the opposite has been then norm, specially under the four year term of Gov, Fortuno.
    We have re-reasd all Sin Comillas contributions for the past two months and realize that all retortsto argumentation arise in any critique of Fortuno asnd not the specific issues being debated.You abandon the debate when repulsed and only spew derogatory adjetives to personality. This is the sign of a true fanatic. Fanatics are slaves top their own subjectivity and adoration of clay idols.
    We have found no defense by us of the Calderon nor Acevedo Vila Administrations.On the contrary they have been repeatedly part of the fiesta del chivo as we refer to the irreposnsible use of increasing public debt without an economic development rationale nor use.
    In reaslity they have increasse opublic debt in greater amounts than any other Governor execept Fortuno.
    We habe neither defended nor glorified Rossello nor his achievements exept by stating that during his eight years in office he increase public debt by $13 billion dollars an amount matched by each succeding governor in only four years.
    Fortuno comes close to doubling it.
    But now we do add that Rossello spent $88 billion dollars in consolidated budgets through eight years while Calderon, Acevedco Vila and Fortuno spent $105 billion, $110billion and $115 bilion each in gour year terms. That is a whooping $331 billion in twelve years. Simple first grade math!
    So relax, exchnage ideas, no reason to insult. Think why we have had 25 consecutive downgrades in bonds in 18 months during Fortuno term after the famous three point recalibration!
    For the record all my forceful retorts have followed attacks on my person. Never have I initiated one debate in such fashion.
    In a more opportune theme we will provide your our analysis on why we may critique the Fortuno grotesque Administration and why I am one of the two hundred thousand dissapointed 2008 voters who believed in faith for statehood and hope for change who repulsed him on 2012.
    Tell us what do you think of the new Moody’s warnings and concerns….Is it the Garcia Padilla group fault fro not remain in the ad hoc Committee on retirment funds?
    Come on be serious Fernandito!Report

  16. PuertoRicoPuede says:

    El que analiza la informacion en detalle y imparcialmente puede darse cuenta que tanto la actividad economica y los recaudos del fisco se desplomaron empezando un mes antes de las elecciones generales.

    Que significa esto? Los promotores de la actividad economica en la Isla se hecharon a un lado, se fueron a los “sidelines” a ver que pasaba en las elecciones…el resultado, sembro panico en los inversionistas y desarrolladores y todos pusieron un alto en sus planes hasta poder entender hacia donde se dirigia el agapito….5 meses despues del dia de la eleccion, vemos el resultado claramente. Pueden hecarle la culpa a quien quieran…la realidad es que nos hundimos todos juntos gracias a este gran gobierno que, ante la supuesta crisis que dice haber heredado (vs haberla causado), enfoca su tiempo y energias en:

    1. Una reforma legislativa que no reformara nada
    2. Una reforma universitaria que, si aun no se han dado cuenta, no saciara el apetito revolucionario de unos cuantos en la UPR que lo que buscan es perpetuarse allí….
    3. Derogar leyes que fomentaran la falta de respeto a las leyes (Tito Kayak & Co.)

    Sin embargo, el plan de desarrollo economico aun lo estamos esperando….el plan anticrimer, que tan malo era bajo la pasada administracion, se quedo idéntico…el plan de retiro que….pues….veremos que pasa.

    La cosa no pinta bien…y mientras mas tiempo pierdan mirando hacia atras, peor se pondra…..hay decenas de ejemplos de que nos puede pasar si no actuamos (Grecia, Espana, Chipre, Portugal, Detroit, etc.)….no hay que experimentar con el desastre…pero parece que eso es mas importante….a ver que pasa…..Report

    • FJ says:

      El que analiza la noticia en detalle e imparcialmente se dará cuenta de que hoy vivimos el resultado de 40 años de irresponsabilidad y negligencia criminal en la gestión de gobierno de parte de políticos corruptos e incompetentes.

      Puerto Rico es la colonia del tumbe, donde la frase que permea en todas los sectores de la sociedad es … “a mi el gobierno me tiene que” … Eso sirvió como anillo al dedo a la partidocracia, ese lumpen politiquero que junto al lumpen burgués se han robado todo. Algunos de mis conocidos se ofendieron cuando hace un año les pronostiqué que Puerto Rico iba por un camino peor que el de Grecia, dado que al menos Grecia tenía la soberanía para aceptar el suicidio colectivo, algo que Puerto Rico ni puede soñar tener. Se rieron acusándome de “profeta del desastre”, que Puerto Rico no era una de esas “republiquetas”, que los “americanos” nunca permitirían eso. Y no estamos hablando de personas sin conocimiento. Son personas educadas, profesionales exitosos en sus campos, pero al fin, como la mayoría de éste pueblo, colonizados hasta el tuétano, viviendo todavía la pesadilla de “la estrella brillante del Caribe, lo mejor de dos mundos, o los americanos están deseosos que seamos estado”.

      Pues señoras y señores, la historia nos atrapó, y está pasándonos factura. Lo triste es que los responsables de nuestra desdicha hoy viven bien. Exgobernadores tienen escolta de esclavos y siguen robando con fundaciones que solo existen en papel. Otros, luego de saquear el sistema de retiro viven con pensiones de millarios habiendo aportado muy poco y hecho nada para merecerlas, “respirando” la estadidad, criticando todo y proponiendo sacrificios que no están dispuestos a asumir desde la comodidad de la distancia. Y el resto siguen como buitres, velando los despojos, a ver que se pueden robar antes de poner pie en polvorosa.

      Una vez aceptemos nuestra realidad tal cual es, y tomemos acción legal contra los responsables, entonces, el pueblo entenderá que uniéndonos saldremos adelante. De lo contrario, seguiremos en la espiral destructiva, los muchos sufriendo, y los pocos robando … y como dijo mi pana Billy Joel … “and so it goes”…Report

  17. ETICA says:

    Y eso que hace apenas 4 meses el entonces Gobernador decia “Vamos por buen camino”. Que la economia estaba a punto de despegar. Que “solo” habia un deficit de $300M y que eso lo balanceaba cualquiera. Perez Riera diciendo que habian subido los ratings…

    Embusteros todos.Report

  18. Las expresiones de Moody’s son una invitación para que la Legislatura de Puerto Rico apruebe sin dilación el paquete de medidas propuesto por el Ejecutivo. En mi opinion, el Gobierno de Puerto Rico tiene la capacidad de levantar el recaudo necesario y obtener los ahorros suficientes – para que Moody’s conceda a la Isla un voto de confianza. Ejemplo de estas medidas es el P. de la C. 917, el cual impone una especie de arbitrio general de un 4% a toda la mercancia importada por empresas que tengan una facturación de 50 millones de dólares. Este impuesto se aplica a toda mercancía – sin exclusiones, que no sea la dispuesta en el subtitulo E del Código. El recaudo bajo esta disposición sera verdaderamente sustancial y unido a las otras medidas propuestas mejoraran sin duda la la posición de flujo de caja del Estado. El problema persiste en el aspecto del mejoramiento de la economía de Puerto Rico. Pero para propósitos de este comentario, debemos de tomar un “issue”a la vez. Creo?Report

  19. Lo triste del caso es que, parafraseando a Winston Churchill, este no es el principio del final de nuestros problemas presupuestarios sino el final del principio. Basta pensar que todavía le queda vida extensa al arbitrio a las compañías foráneas y ya afrontamos serios problemas de suficiencia y boyancia de los recaudos del Fondo General.

    Si Cuba tuvo un periodo especial nosotros vamos a tener un periodo especialísimo.

    Nadie en nuestro suelo debe subestimar la gravedad del momento ni sentirse incómodo por el carácter drástico de algunas de la medidas que tendremos que adoptar para conjurar esta crisis.

    Ya no sólo tendremos que mirarnos en el espejo de Grecia, sino en el de Chipre, donde hubo que hacer un corralito, una expropiación de los ahorros de las personas y negocios, para salvar la economía y la base financiera del país.

    ¿Alguien entre nosotros, los analistas de sincomillas.com, puede encontrar inspiración en esta noticia, sentirse optimista ante estos desarrollos?

    Le cedo lleno de esperanza el turno.Report

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